• Buyer Demand Is Strengthening: Mortgage purchase applications are up 20% year-over-year — a strong early indicator of returning demand. Many potential buyers are still on the fence, but the interest is clearly building.

• Builders Are Gaining Edge: New home sales are outperforming resales thanks to available inventory and incentives like rate buydowns and price flexibility. Builders are responding by offering smaller, more affordable homes.

• Mortgage Rates Hold the Key: With Treasuries at 3.4%, a typical spread would place mortgage rates closer to 6% (not 7%) — but volatility and uncertainty are keeping spreads wide. A Fed rate cut could spark new momentum, especially as inflation trends toward their 2% target.

• Inflation Pressure Is Easing: The shelter component (⅓ of CPI) is softening as rents stabilize and multifamily supply increases. Lower energy prices and potential deregulation may further cool inflation.

• Job Market = Stable Demand: 70 million-plus Americans are employed post-COVID — a strong foundation for long-term housing demand. Affordable regions like the Midwest and Upstate NY are seeing the most price appreciation due to this affordability.

• Home Prices Are Holding Firm: Despite high rates, national home prices remain at or near all-time highs. Default rates are historically low, even among FHA borrowers — no sign of a crash.

• Home Equity = Long-Term Wealth: In markets like Denver, 10-year owners have seen $400K+ in equity gains. It reinforces the value of ownership over renting.

• Watch List: Days on market and price cuts are ticking up — strategic pricing and staging are more critical than ever. Long-term risks include government spending, tax reform, and Treasury yield volatility.