The industry’s challenge is getting annual existing-home sales back from approximately 4 million toward 5 million transactions. Sales have not meaningfully increased this year, but Yun emphasized something encouraging: the market has remained relatively stable despite rising mortgage rates.

He asked the audience to consider what sales might look like if mortgage rates returned closer to the approximately 6% level seen earlier in the year. That suggests substantial housing demand remains beneath the surface. Affordability and financing costs—not necessarily a lack of desire to purchase homes—continue to constrain buyers.

Why Mortgage Rates Remain High

Mortgage rates are closely tied to long-term bond yields, and Yun noted that long-term yields have moved substantially higher.

He identified several forces contributing to this environment: Inflationary pressure, including energy and oil prices; Strong investment associated with artificial intelligence; labor-market constraints; and, large federal government borrowing and spending.

Earlier expectations that the Federal Reserve might make multiple rate cuts have weakened considerably as inflation concerns have persisted. Yun said the near-term direction of mortgage rates may depend heavily on oil prices.

If geopolitical conditions stabilize and energy prices decline, inflation could become more manageable and provide some relief to interest rates.

At the same time, he stressed that several other forces—AI investment, labor constraints and government debt—are more structural and could keep long-term rates elevated.